No Fly Zone Libya

It seems that the chances on Gaddafi being ousted have declines somewhat. Intrade - Muammar al-Gaddafi to no longer be leader of Libya before midnight ET 31 Dec 2011 is 57.0% probable. If we look at the graph here we see that his perceived chance of being replaced this year rose in and around the time that the no fly zone was implemented and have undergone a steady decline ever since.

We should note that these odds reflect the expectation that more action might be taken against him in the future. It seems likely that without such action he will remain in power.

This doesn't look good. It seems that the no fly zone will fail to serve its humanitarian goal. Military intervention will either escalate or fail. If it escalates, there will be even more casualties of both American soldiers and Libyan civilians. This will put us at greater risk of terrorism. If the no fly zone fails, it will only have served to prolong the conflict, perhaps even increasing civilian casualties.

What this adds up to is that military intervention seems to have failed to achieve its objectives. We will need even more intervention in order to topple Gaddafi, and the American people don't support that.

When we can't be certain whether or not there is a good chance that humanitarian intervention may not even accomplish its stated objectives, then it is fairly certain to fail on humanitarian grounds. Even success at regime change is no guarantee of success on humanitarian grounds, since there are likely to be more efficient and humane ways of helping people