Gaddafi's Prospects Deteriorate

It looks like the market is giving Gaddafi less of a chance of retaining office for the year.  Now he is given a 72.3% chance of being replaced by year end.  I would be inclined to believe that that would be good news, in that this placed distance between the dreaded 50% mark which is likely to lead to a long, protracted stalemate.

However, we cannot be certain that the end result will be democratic.  In addition we need to consider that removing him will likely require more extensive use of force than either the American public or the Arab league were happy with going into this conflict.  We will never know for sure what would have taken place had the West remained neutral.  My suspicion is that the conflict would rapidly go in Gaddafi's favor as far as putting down the armed rebellion.

Islam has more impediments to non-violent protest.  They might see this as being a foreign import from the West, which would be unwelcome.  Islam has a long tradition of a form of rebellion against the government where radicals label the regime "apostate".  Violent overthrow and replacement of the regime then become the goal of this movement.  If the argument presented in A Force More Powerful is correct, this is unlikely to result in a favorable outcome.  Violent revolution is more likely than not to lead to a less democratic regime.  Although I must say that the leadership of the opposition has successfully made a good impression on a Western audience.  On the other hand, given the importance of Western support for the success of the armed opposition, he had a powerful incentive to tell Westerners what they wanted to hear regardless of his personal inclinations.