Odds in Next Election

It seems that people who are betting on the upcoming presidential election believe that the Republicans have a slightly better chance of winning than the Democrats (49.8% vs. 49.2%).  Mitt Romney is given the highest probability of winning the Republican nomination at 40%.

However, Barack Obama is given even odds.  This is a slight discrepancy, as his odds of winning the next election can be no higher than that of the Democrats as a whole.  Perhaps they believe that it is more likely that he will run as an independent or member of some other party and win than that he will lose the nomination and the Democrats will select a winning candidate.  Actually death or incapacity are more likely, or something could come up that would make him decide not to run.  In that event the Democrats would be forced to pick another candidate, who might win.  I think this is not likely, but much more probable than Obama winning as a non-Democrat.

The Republicans are given much better odds of controlling both the House of Representatives and the Senate. If they manage to pull off victories in all three races, this will put an end to divided government.  I'm not sure this is a good thing.  As bad as it makes the government look when Republicans and Democrats each strive to put the other in an unfavorable light, it might actually improve government performance.