Odds on Chris Christie

There has been some speculation that Chris Christie might enter the race, particularly in the media.  The market that I watch gives a 30.5% chance that he will enter, and a 9.4% chance that he will win the Republican nomination.  This indicates that he will probably not enter, and that if he does he will probably not win.  The probability is slightly less than a third in each case.  On the second point I am referring to the conditional probability of him winning the nomination in the event that he enters the race.  I assume that he needs to enter the race to win it.  Perhaps this assumption is less than completely certain, but it seems fairly safe.

On the bright side for his supporters, he is given a 5.6% chance of winning the presidency itself.  This would imply that in the unlikely event that he actually won the nomination, he would be quite likely to beat Barack Obama.

However, this is perhaps reading far too much into these numbers.  A market like this is likely to favor candidates who have long odds.  Since his odds of winning the presidency must be lower than the chance that he will enter or win the GOP nomination, his chances of doing this may be over-estimated to a greater degree than his odds in these other two markets.  I would have thought that his abrasive style would hurt his chances in a general election.

His Wikipedia article gives a brief summary of his career.  More information can be found in the article focusing on his governorship.