Correction For Future Supreme Court Composition

I have a spreadsheet on which I calculated the odds that the supreme court will change in composition.  It seems that when I made my calculations before, I neglected to take into consideration that replacing Anthony Kennedy under a Republican president would likely be a shift to the right.  Taking this into consideration, should the GOP candidate win, this will likely result in such a shift unless a liberal or Anthony Kennedy retires and is replaced prior to the transition.  I doubt that Kennedy would retire for that reason, so I have considered that one or two of the oldest liberal Supreme Court justices may retire and calculated odds of a shift even if these occur.

If a Republican serves for two terms, then a shift is likely.  It is more likely than not even in the event that two liberals retire and are replaced prior to Obama leaving office.

In my table in order to count as a change in composition a liberal must be replaced by a conservative or a conservative by a liberal.  I have updated the spreadsheet so that if the median position is replaced this will also count as a change in composition.