Barack Obama Still Likely to Win

In a post from about a month and a half ago, I projected that Barack Obama would win the upcoming presidential election.  I stand by this prediction.  I think that my predictions about how each state will vote are hardly biased in his favor.  In fact, my prediction that Virginia will go to the G.O.P. is probably at least as uncertain as any of the states that I predicted would go to the Democrats.  Even Rasmussen put them in a dead heat with each candidate enjoying 47% support.  I believe that Rasmussen's polls are systematically biased toward the Republicans.  It always seems that they have results that are more favorable to Republicans than those of other organizations that conduct polls.  It could be that the name sounds conservative, so people who respond to their poll are more likely to give that kind of response.

Then again, I could be wrong about Ohio and Iowa, but in that case many other people would be wrong as well.  Intrade is predicting that these races will go as I have said.  Real Clear Politics calls these and many other races a toss up.  However, in both cases the polls tend to favor the Democrats, although the results are mixed.  In the case of Iowa, only one poll favors Barack Obama and it is likely to be biased in that direction.  In the case of Ohio, the two most recent polls go toward Mitt Romney.  In both cases there is the Rasmussen poll and some other poll that favor the G.O.P.  In both cases the recent average of all polls favors the Democrats.  If Mitt Romney were to take every state that I predicted as well as Ohio and Iowa, then my prediction would be wrong, but that is unlikely.