What the Presidential election looks like now

2012 Presidential Election Interactive Map: Interactive map for the upcoming 2012 presidential election. Use it to predict which candidate will reach the necessary 270 electoral votes.

It looks like Barack Obama will win handily with 332 electoral votes to Mitt Romney's 206.  Things have swung toward the Democrats since I last wrote on this subject.  It looks like they are given a roughly 60% chance of nominally controlling the Senate, with a 20% chance going toward each of the two remaining possibilities, namely a Republican majority and no majority whatsoever.  In any case since a majority is likely to consist of something like 51 seats, this will be well short of the 60 seat supermajority that would be necessary to overcome a filibuster, much less the 67 seats necessary to override a presidential veto, which is mostly relevant for the party opposite that of the president.

The House seems likely to remain Republican, although their majority is likely to be somewhere in the neighborhood of 230 votes, well above the 218 necessary for a majority but much less than the 290 necessary to override a presidential veto.