Intrade Prediction Markets

At Intrade Prediction Markets gamblers find it more likely than not that the Republicans will take the Senate. By smaller margins they believe that Barrack Obama is likely to retain the Presidency and that Republicans will hold on to the House of Representatives. Hence we will likely have divided government.

The least certain outcome is the House of representatives. The Republicans are only given about a 55% chance of retaining the House in 2012.